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Lugo 4–2 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win35%2.79
Lugo win34%2.89
Draw32%3.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Deivid · Las Palmas
12'⚽ (pen)Cristian Herrera · Lugo
19'🟨David Timor · Las Palmas
25'⚽Juan Cala · Las Palmas
36'⚽Cristian Herrera · Lugo
41'🟨Dani Escriche · Lugo
47'⚽Dani Escriche · Lugo
50'🟨Edu Campabadal · Lugo
54'⚽Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
87'🟨Juan Carlos · Lugo
89'🟨Rafa Mir · Las Palmas
90'🟨Fidel · Las Palmas
90'🟨Juan Cala · Las Palmas
90'⚽Iriome Gonzalez · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
17Shots15
7On target5
13Corners9
16Fouls15
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
box share (last 5)0.580.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days69.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
22.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.711.78
elo1388.191414.00
elo momentum (last 5)-10.04-9.47
eye test v1-0.69-0.67
eye trend v10.450.20
first sub minute (last 10)49.0053.20
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.10
keeper form v10.780.67
league points16.0023.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6077.60
possession avg (last 5)47.0056.20
rest days7.176.98
scorer concentration0.270.39
season ppg1.001.44
skill v1-0.740.50
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.603.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.80
state index-0.55-0.88
sterile dominance v1-0.080.99
threat rate (last 10)0.190.20
threat rate (last 3)0.180.12
threat rate (last 5)0.200.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40