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Oviedo 1–2 Almeria

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win52%1.86
Draw30%3.24
Almeria win18%5.32

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Mossa · Oviedo
15'⚽José Corpas · Almeria
18'⚽Juan Carlos · Almeria
51'🟨Javier Muñoz · Oviedo
57'🟨José Corpas · Almeria
69'🟨Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
71'🟨Javier Hernández · Oviedo
75'🟨Javier Hernández · Oviedo
75'🟥Javier Hernández · Oviedo
79'🟨Sergio Tejera · Oviedo
80'🟨Yan Eteki · Almeria
90'🟨Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
15Shots10
2On target4
6Corners3
13Fouls16
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.33
box share (last 5)0.490.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days525.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
647.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.88
elo1472.601429.19
elo momentum (last 5)2.94-3.22
eye test v1-0.37-0.63
eye trend v10.29-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)59.4055.70
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.03
keeper form v10.600.63
league points23.0020.00
league rank9.0013.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2070.60
possession avg (last 5)50.4056.00
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.170.21
season ppg1.441.25
skill v1-0.24-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)2.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
state index0.03-0.68
sterile dominance v1-0.470.52
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.19
threat rate (last 5)0.290.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.40