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Mallorca 1–2 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win35%2.77
Draw34%2.82
Mallorca win31%3.17

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Adrián González · Málaga CF
22'🟨Dani Pacheco · Málaga CF
42'⚽Jack Harper · Málaga CF
73'⚽Alex López · Mallorca
78'🟨Gustavo Blanco · Málaga CF
85'⚽Miguel Cifuentes · Málaga CF
89'🟨Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca
90'🟨Monir El Kajoui · Málaga CF
90'🟨David Lombán · Málaga CF
90'🟨Federico Ricca · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots17
8On target6
3Corners5
13Fouls18
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.35
box share (last 5)0.750.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days616.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
190.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.163.66
elo1473.411450.98
elo momentum (last 5)40.51-17.31
eye test v10.26-0.49
eye trend v10.54-0.52
first sub minute (last 10)54.5051.50
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.88
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.810.66
league points27.0029.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6074.40
possession avg (last 5)41.4051.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.380.32
season ppg1.691.81
skill v1-1.22-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.40
state index0.50-0.58
sterile dominance v1-0.820.29
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.18
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40