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Almeria 1–1 Extremadura

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win47%2.04
Draw30%3.21
Extremadura win22%4.32

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Almeria
18'⚽Enric Gallego · Extremadura
23'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
26'🟨Yan Eteki · Almeria
29'🟨Carlos Pomares · Extremadura
46'🟨Fausto Tienza · Extremadura
53'🟨Lucien Owona · Almeria
73'🟨Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
74'🟨— · Extremadura

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots8
3On target1
3Corners4
14Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaExtremadura
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
box share (last 5)0.520.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days640.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
30.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.801.64
elo1430.241453.85
elo momentum (last 5)-9.20-8.94
eye test v1-0.80-0.28
eye trend v1-0.52-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)56.0057.60
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.29
keeper form v10.720.52
league points19.0015.00
league rank11.0018.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.4071.60
possession avg (last 5)52.0047.20
rest days7.176.17
scorer concentration0.150.61
season ppg1.271.00
skill v1-0.84-0.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.00
state index-0.35-0.23
sterile dominance v10.00-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.280.29
threat rate (last 3)0.200.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40