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Cordoba 1–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Lopez Toca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win44%2.19
Draw30%3.26
Elche CF win26%3.72

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Cordoba
25'🟨Javi Galán · Cordoba
30'🟨Xavi Torres · Elche CF
44'⚽Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
75'🟨Ibrahim Blati Toure · Cordoba
80'🟨— · Elche CF
82'🟨Josan · Elche CF
83'⚽Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
85'🟨Gonzalo Villar · Elche CF
90'🟨Josan · Elche CF
90'🟥Josan · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots10
8On target4
3Corners4
23Fouls17
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.31
box share (last 5)0.440.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days30.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
303.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.032.75
elo1382.101366.15
elo momentum (last 5)-17.23-7.84
eye test v10.46-0.39
eye trend v1-0.410.22
first sub minute (last 10)50.8059.80
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.94
keeper form v10.540.64
league points11.0015.00
league rank21.0017.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6071.60
possession avg (last 5)53.6047.60
rest days6.925.92
scorer concentration0.190.64
season ppg0.731.00
skill v10.22-0.70
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.80
state index-0.79-1.01
sterile dominance v10.08-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40