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Zaragoza 0–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw35%2.78
Zaragoza win34%2.84
Cadiz win31%3.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Dejan Lekic · Cadiz
37'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Zaragoza
53'🟨Diego Aguirre · Zaragoza
71'🟨Bruno Perone · Zaragoza
73'🟨David Carmona · Cadiz
84'🟨Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
88'🟨Sergio Sánchez · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots10
5On target4
5Corners6
15Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.210.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.45
box share (last 5)0.410.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days182.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
973.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.013.11
elo1462.171515.25
elo momentum (last 5)-33.0556.17
eye test v1-0.700.33
eye trend v10.140.47
first sub minute (last 10)50.4051.90
form points (last 5)4.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.802.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.003.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.75
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.610.68
league points15.0023.00
league rank19.007.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet11.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4071.20
possession avg (last 5)52.0038.80
rest days5.026.02
scorer concentration0.290.28
season ppg1.001.53
skill v1-0.11-1.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.20
state index-0.780.81
sterile dominance v10.02-1.32
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.34
threat rate (last 5)0.240.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40