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Elche CF 0–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Elche CF win42%2.31
Draw30%3.21
Albacete win28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Eugeni Valderrama · Albacete
14'🟨Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
17'⚽Néstor Susaeta · Albacete
19'🟨— · Elche CF
29'🟨Sory Kaba · Elche CF
37'🟨Álvaro Tejero · Albacete
39'🟨Álvaro Arroyo · Albacete
40'🟨Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
42'🟥Roman Zozulya · Albacete
69'🟨Neyder Lozano · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
23Shots3
6On target1
8Corners4
13Fouls16
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.42
box share (last 5)0.550.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days297.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
177.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.883.63
elo1374.731484.41
elo momentum (last 5)18.1825.86
eye test v1-0.800.17
eye trend v10.080.09
first sub minute (last 10)59.6052.10
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.95
keeper form v10.660.83
league points15.0024.00
league rank16.005.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)43.0047.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.640.25
season ppg1.071.71
skill v1-1.20-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.00
state index-0.300.27
sterile dominance v1-0.52-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40