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Extremadura 1–0 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win41%2.39
Draw32%3.01
Extremadura win27%3.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Pau Torres · Málaga CF
32'⚽Kike · Extremadura
53'🟨— · Extremadura
68'🟨Ivan Rodríguez · Málaga CF
73'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
78'🟨Diego González · Málaga CF
90'🟨Íñigo López · Extremadura

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots10
3On target4
2Corners2
17Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.610.62
cards avg (last 5)4.803.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
coach days24.00177.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.753.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.09
dominance (last 5)0.510.52
elo1398.031541.56
elo momentum (last 5)-2.718.91
eye test v1-0.190.13
eye trend v1-0.07-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)56.5053.80
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.450.69
league points12.0030.00
league rank22.003.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet19.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2074.40
possession avg (last 5)47.8049.60
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.650.32
season ppg0.802.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.6011.40
skill v1-0.63-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.60
squad age28.2425.42
state index-0.450.15
sterile dominance v1-0.240.01
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.23
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60