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Albacete 1–0 Lugo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win51%1.90
Draw28%3.42
Lugo win21%4.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Ramon Azeez · Lugo
26'🟨Jérémie Bela · Albacete
40'🟨Santiago Gentiletti · Albacete
58'🟨Aleix Febas · Albacete
61'🟨José Carlos Lazo · Lugo
80'🟨Edu Campabadal · Lugo
84'⚽Jérémie Bela · Albacete
85'🟨Jérémie Bela · Albacete
85'🟥Jérémie Bela · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots11
3On target2
13Corners1
14Fouls19
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.24
box share (last 5)0.690.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days170.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
48.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.102.51
elo1478.391391.82
elo momentum (last 5)11.51-5.55
eye test v10.07-0.78
eye trend v10.320.02
first sub minute (last 10)52.6049.70
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.70
keeper form v10.840.72
league points21.0013.00
league rank7.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)46.2054.40
rest days6.928.00
scorer concentration0.180.30
season ppg1.621.00
skill v1-0.440.36
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.602.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.60
state index0.05-0.62
sterile dominance v1-0.240.56
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.230.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00