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Mallorca 3–0 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win54%1.80
Draw27%3.57
Cordoba win19%5.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Saša Jovanović · Cordoba
44'🟨Aythami Artiles · Cordoba
48'⚽Alex López · Mallorca
54'🟨José Fernández · Cordoba
65'🟨Joan Sastre · Mallorca
71'🟨Marc Pedraza · Mallorca
75'⚽Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca
88'🟨Jaime Romero · Cordoba
90'⚽Lago Júnior · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots12
7On target3
6Corners4
7Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.40
box share (last 5)0.660.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days589.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
10.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.323.38
elo1435.611418.06
elo momentum (last 5)9.3318.20
eye test v1-0.580.58
eye trend v1-0.130.51
first sub minute (last 10)56.6048.20
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.25
league points17.0011.00
league rank11.0019.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4069.20
possession avg (last 5)50.0045.40
rest days7.087.92
scorer concentration0.310.21
season ppg1.420.92
skill v10.06-1.10
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.677.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.206.00
state index-0.22-0.29
sterile dominance v10.35-1.20
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.190.33
threat rate (last 5)0.200.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20