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Granada 0–0 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win58%1.65
Draw26%3.65
Numancia win15%6.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'🟨Pichu Atienza · Numancia
61'🟨Yaw Yeboah · Numancia
69'🟨Nicolás Aguirre · Granada
69'🟨Pape Maly Diamanka · Numancia
70'🟨Yaw Yeboah · Numancia
70'🟥Yaw Yeboah · Numancia
72'🟨Alejandro Sanz · Numancia
86'🟨Jordi Sánchez · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots6
2On target3
3Corners1
13Fouls19
1Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.30
box share (last 5)0.560.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days163.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
163.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.07
elo1509.781452.34
elo momentum (last 5)33.081.84
eye test v10.02-0.13
eye trend v1-0.230.02
first sub minute (last 10)60.8055.70
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.79
keeper form v10.820.72
league points26.0016.00
league rank3.0011.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0079.80
possession avg (last 5)53.0057.00
rest days6.657.75
scorer concentration0.320.22
season ppg2.171.33
skill v10.330.79
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
state index0.66-0.35
sterile dominance v10.360.69
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40