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Extremadura 2–3 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win43%2.26
Draw29%3.33
Extremadura win28%3.47

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Fausto Tienza · Extremadura
31'🟨Luciano Balbi · Extremadura
32'🟨Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna
39'🟨Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna
39'⚽ (pen)Enric Gallego · Extremadura
42'⚽Oier · CA Osasuna
56'🟨Nacho Vidal · CA Osasuna
59'🟨Fausto Tienza · Extremadura
70'🟨Íñigo López · Extremadura
71'🟨— · Extremadura
74'⚽ (og)Íñigo López · CA Osasuna
78'🟨Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna
78'🟥Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna
83'🟨Giovanni Zarfino · Extremadura
90'⚽Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots11
5On target2
3Corners3
23Fouls15
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.23
box share (last 5)0.540.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days9.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
162.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.722.42
elo1436.451469.78
elo momentum (last 5)-25.2515.70
eye test v1-0.39-0.57
eye trend v1-0.44-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.3056.20
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.14
keeper form v10.520.63
league points9.0016.00
league rank21.0012.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet12.005.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6074.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8053.80
rest days6.927.00
scorer concentration0.580.42
season ppg0.751.33
skill v1-0.55-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
state index-0.78-0.09
sterile dominance v1-0.110.12
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40