⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cadiz 5–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win51%1.88
Draw29%3.34
Elche CF win20%4.92

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Sory Kaba · Elche CF
19'🟨Brian Oliván · Cadiz
24'🟨Sergio Sánchez · Cadiz
27'🟨— · Elche CF
31'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
33'🟨Tekio · Elche CF
50'⚽Róber · Cadiz
63'⚽Dejan Lekic · Cadiz
68'⚽ (pen)José Mari · Cadiz
73'⚽Salvi · Cadiz
75'⚽Manu Vallejo · Cadiz
80'🟨Javi Flores · Elche CF
81'🟨Alexander González · Elche CF
84'🟨Borja Martinez · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots11
7On target4
9Corners4
14Fouls20
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.26
box share (last 5)0.550.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days947.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
276.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.432.83
elo1469.351391.61
elo momentum (last 5)-11.6439.02
eye test v1-0.28-0.65
eye trend v10.25-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)49.4055.40
form points (last 5)5.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.88
keeper form v10.660.89
league points11.0014.00
league rank18.0012.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8077.00
possession avg (last 5)49.0045.40
rest days7.696.65
scorer concentration0.330.60
season ppg1.001.27
skill v10.14-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.00
state index-0.26-0.15
sterile dominance v10.11-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.260.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60