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Cordoba 4–2 Extremadura

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win47%2.07
Draw29%3.35
Extremadura win24%3.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
24'🟨Carlos Pomares · Extremadura
32'🟨Fausto Tienza · Extremadura
32'🟨Íñigo López · Extremadura
34'🟨Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
39'🟨Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
39'🟥Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
39'⚽Enric Gallego · Extremadura
57'🟨— · Extremadura
62'⚽Willy · Extremadura
70'🟨Alvaro Romero · Extremadura
72'🟨Carlos Pomares · Extremadura
72'🟥Carlos Pomares · Extremadura
77'⚽Saša Jovanović · Cordoba
79'🟨Marcelo Djaló · Extremadura
84'🟨Giovanni Zarfino · Extremadura
90'⚽Saša Jovanović · Cordoba
90'⚽Jaime Romero · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots11
8On target4
4Corners6
9Fouls23
2Yellow cards8
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaExtremadura
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
box share (last 5)0.440.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
2.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.313.06
elo1403.601450.90
elo momentum (last 5)-6.40-15.42
eye test v10.01-0.17
eye trend v10.09-0.48
first sub minute (last 10)46.2059.00
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.23
keeper form v10.590.53
league points8.009.00
league rank22.0020.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.0011.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8070.60
possession avg (last 5)45.4047.00
rest days8.006.08
scorer concentration0.300.60
season ppg0.730.82
skill v1-1.14-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
state index-0.63-0.47
sterile dominance v1-0.95-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.320.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00