⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Zaragoza 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win39%2.48
Draw31%3.09
Tenerife win29%3.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Javi Ros · Zaragoza
35'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
42'🟨Nano Mesa · Tenerife
55'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
60'🟨Álex Muñoz · Zaragoza
86'🟨Dani Hernández · Tenerife
87'🟨Bryan Acosta · Tenerife
87'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
88'🟨José Naranjo · Tenerife
88'⚽ (pen)Javi Ros · Zaragoza
90'⚽Bryan Acosta · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots8
2On target2
5Corners1
12Fouls11
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.39
box share (last 5)0.460.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days142.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
50.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.403.31
elo1498.191451.95
elo momentum (last 5)-48.04-24.34
eye test v1-0.590.13
eye trend v1-0.550.02
first sub minute (last 10)54.4052.00
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.63
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.720.66
league points10.008.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8080.60
possession avg (last 5)60.2048.20
rest days7.987.29
scorer concentration0.300.17
season ppg1.110.89
skill v11.210.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.20
state index-0.81-0.67
sterile dominance v11.32-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.27
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60