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Las Palmas 3–0 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win52%1.85
Draw29%3.29
Numancia win18%5.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Yaw Yeboah · Numancia
1'⚽Sergio Araujo · Las Palmas
20'⚽Rafa Mir · Las Palmas
22'🟨Dani Calvo · Numancia
34'🟨Pelayo Suarez · Numancia
42'🟨David Timor · Las Palmas
45'🟨Rafa Mir · Las Palmas
60'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
67'🟨David García · Las Palmas
73'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
73'🟥Alberto Escassi · Numancia
76'⚽Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
90'🟨Danny Blum · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots9
9On target1
2Corners8
15Fouls12
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.34
box share (last 5)0.530.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days172.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGran Canaria
141.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.952.44
elo1403.631468.79
elo momentum (last 5)3.042.97
eye test v1-0.820.19
eye trend v1-0.55-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)52.7053.90
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.88
keeper form v10.790.82
league points15.0013.00
league rank6.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)55.2053.60
rest days6.906.90
scorer concentration0.560.29
season ppg1.671.44
skill v1-0.220.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.80
state index-0.40-0.23
sterile dominance v10.45-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.190.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80