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Oviedo 2–1 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win38%2.56
Draw33%2.90
CA Osasuna win29%3.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Unai García · CA Osasuna
14'🟨Juan Forlin · Oviedo
41'🟨Brandon · CA Osasuna
59'🟨Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna
62'⚽ (og)Unai García · Oviedo
79'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
82'🟨Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna
82'🟥Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna
90'🟨Unai García · CA Osasuna
90'⚽Saúl Berjón · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots5
2On target1
6Corners2
14Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.26
box share (last 5)0.580.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days476.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
141.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.272.41
elo1472.761467.79
elo momentum (last 5)-4.3012.17
eye test v1-0.39-0.33
eye trend v1-0.360.25
first sub minute (last 10)59.0054.40
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.20
keeper form v10.660.62
league points12.0012.00
league rank11.0012.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0072.60
possession avg (last 5)50.8055.00
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.200.38
season ppg1.331.33
skill v1-0.44-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.60
state index-0.19-0.20
sterile dominance v10.06-0.05
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20