⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Elche CF 2–0 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win38%2.52
Draw32%3.06
Elche CF win30%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'⚽Neyder Lozano · Elche CF
38'🟨Gonzalo Villar · Elche CF
62'🟨Federico Ricca · Málaga CF
63'⚽Borja Martinez · Elche CF
68'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
88'🟨Benja · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots13
2On target5
3Corners9
19Fouls17
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricElche CFMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.180.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.590.56
cards avg (last 5)2.603.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero
coach days260.00140.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.12
corner diff avg (last 5)3.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.052.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.06
dominance (last 5)0.570.55
elo1378.421552.40
elo momentum (last 5)10.6015.23
eye test v1-0.070.18
eye trend v10.38-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)52.9056.60
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
keeper form v10.620.68
league points8.0022.00
league rank18.001.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet8.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8073.80
possession avg (last 5)49.2041.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration1.000.33
season ppg0.892.44
shot diff avg (last 5)5.003.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.8013.00
skill v1-0.05-0.86
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
squad age28.3526.51
state index-0.400.43
sterile dominance v1-0.79-1.35
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.260.31
threat rate (last 5)0.340.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40