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Extremadura 2–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Oct 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Avalos Barrera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Extremadura win35%2.80
Draw33%2.95
Cadiz win32%2.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Ivan Kecojević · Cadiz
37'🟨Matos · Cadiz
38'🟨Manu Vallejo · Cadiz
56'⚽Enric Gallego · Extremadura
58'🟨José Mari · Cadiz
59'⚽Giovanni Zarfino · Extremadura
63'🟨Chuli · Extremadura
64'🟨Carlos Valverde · Extremadura
67'🟨Vincenzo Rennella · Extremadura
70'🟨Enric Gallego · Extremadura
78'🟨Diego Capel · Extremadura
80'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
82'🟨Ivan Kecojević · Cadiz
89'🟨— · Extremadura
90'🟨Aitor Fernández · Extremadura
90'🟨Dejan Lekic · Cadiz
90'🟨Álex Fernández · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots12
3On target2
3Corners4
21Fouls16
7Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.590.52
cards avg (last 5)3.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
coach days741.00924.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.02
corner diff avg (last 5)1.803.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.807.60
corners volatility (last 10)—3.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.20
dominance (last 5)0.600.61
elo1389.481493.32
elo momentum (last 5)-6.97-44.23
eye test v10.83-0.35
eye trend v10.580.14
first sub minute (last 10)55.6246.40
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
keeper form v1—0.67
league points5.007.00
league rank23.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet13.007.00
matches since win2.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8079.20
possession avg (last 5)47.2048.60
rest days6.005.00
scorer concentration0.71—
season ppg0.560.88
shot diff avg (last 5)6.005.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.8012.80
skill v1-1.010.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.502.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.20
squad age27.0427.98
state index-0.52-0.82
sterile dominance v1-1.68-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.310.25
threat rate (last 3)0.430.22
threat rate (last 5)0.400.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.40