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RC Deportivo La Coruña 1–1 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win45%2.13
Draw31%3.14
Málaga CF win24%4.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Juanpi Añor · Málaga CF
40'🟨Jack Harper · Málaga CF
54'⚽Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
69'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Málaga CF
73'🟨Ivan Rodríguez · Málaga CF
76'⚽Carlos Fernández · RC Deportivo La Coruña
78'🟨Christian Santos · RC Deportivo La Coruña
78'🟥Quique · RC Deportivo La Coruña
80'🟨Adrián González · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots5
2On target3
6Corners3
9Fouls20
0Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.36
box share (last 5)0.640.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days128.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
128.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.311.89
elo1476.271463.09
elo momentum (last 5)29.2932.38
eye test v10.250.06
eye trend v10.170.28
first sub minute (last 10)59.4055.90
form points (last 5)10.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.94
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.760.71
league points14.0018.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0071.00
possession avg (last 5)56.2040.40
rest days6.907.08
scorer concentration0.500.22
season ppg2.002.57
skill v10.96-1.24
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
state index0.230.25
sterile dominance v10.91-1.46
threat rate (last 10)0.220.29
threat rate (last 3)0.190.43
threat rate (last 5)0.200.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20