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Cordoba 1–0 Almeria

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win39%2.51
Draw32%3.07
Almeria win30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Saša Jovanović · Cordoba
26'🟨Álvaro Aguado · Cordoba
47'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Cordoba
62'🟨Sergio Aguza · Almeria
64'🟨César de la Hoz · Almeria
71'🟨Luismi Quezada · Cordoba
74'🟨Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
74'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
80'🟨Franck Bambock · Cordoba
90'🟨Aythami Artiles · Cordoba
90'🟥Aythami Artiles · Cordoba
90'🟥José Corpas · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots11
5On target2
6Corners4
22Fouls18
8Yellow cards2
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.38
box share (last 5)0.580.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days66.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
584.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.512.27
elo1399.851432.08
elo momentum (last 5)-39.2124.48
eye test v1-0.070.05
eye trend v1-0.600.99
first sub minute (last 10)49.5063.40
form points (last 5)2.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.88
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.560.75
league points3.0010.00
league rank22.009.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8069.20
possession avg (last 5)53.2045.60
rest days7.086.08
scorer concentration0.140.17
season ppg0.431.43
skill v10.23-1.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.80
state index-1.23-0.12
sterile dominance v10.57-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.160.34
threat rate (last 5)0.190.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80