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Extremadura 2–2 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Extremadura win38%2.58
Draw32%3.07
Elche CF win31%3.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
18'⚽ (pen)Enric Gallego · Extremadura
32'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
32'🟥Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
33'⚽ (pen)Carlos Valverde · Extremadura
38'🟨— · Extremadura
55'🟨Chuli · Extremadura
68'🟨Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
78'🟨Sory Kaba · Elche CF
82'⚽Sory Kaba · Elche CF
87'⚽Sory Kaba · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
17Shots14
6On target4
4Corners6
22Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.14
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.19
box share (last 5)0.650.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days729.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
241.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—3.27
elo1466.321352.58
elo momentum (last 5)-34.82-10.48
eye test v10.14-0.39
eye trend v10.560.90
first sub minute (last 10)55.8351.60
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)—0.53
keeper form v10.640.65
league points4.004.00
league rank21.0020.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.005.00
matches since win0.0015.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2073.80
possession avg (last 5)45.8052.80
rest days8.087.17
scorer concentration0.71—
season ppg0.670.67
skill v1-0.96-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
state index-0.55-1.48
sterile dominance v1-1.26-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.410.41
threat rate (last 5)0.340.31
venue ppg (last 5)—0.40