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Granada 4–2 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win55%1.75
Draw27%3.54
Cordoba win18%5.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Fede Vico · Granada
10'🟨Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
20'⚽Álvaro Vadillo · Granada
39'🟨Jaime Romero · Cordoba
41'🟨Saša Jovanović · Cordoba
50'⚽ (pen)Aythami Artiles · Cordoba
51'🟨Luismi Quezada · Cordoba
54'⚽Ángel Montoro · Granada
85'⚽Franck Bambock · Cordoba
90'🟨Rodri · Granada
90'⚽Rodri · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots6
8On target2
4Corners2
16Fouls21
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.42
box share (last 5)0.590.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days120.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
59.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.732.30
elo1466.541410.00
elo momentum (last 5)37.50-45.65
eye test v10.160.54
eye trend v10.47-0.62
first sub minute (last 10)60.1054.50
form points (last 5)10.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.18
keeper form v10.77—
league points11.003.00
league rank5.0022.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2079.00
possession avg (last 5)46.2056.60
rest days4.886.90
scorer concentration0.560.17
season ppg1.830.50
skill v1-0.310.68
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.60
state index0.47-1.25
sterile dominance v1-0.210.57
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20