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Albacete 2–2 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win38%2.56
Zaragoza win32%3.05
Draw30%3.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Rey Manaj · Albacete
20'⚽ (og)Diogo Verdasca · Albacete
41'🟨Álvaro Arroyo · Albacete
51'🟨Simone Grippo · Zaragoza
53'⚽Marc Gual · Zaragoza
79'⚽Álvaro Vázquez · Zaragoza
80'🟨Bruno Perone · Zaragoza
84'🟨Alberto Zapater · Zaragoza
85'🟨Jon Erice · Albacete
88'🟨Alberto Benito · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots15
4On target3
7Corners2
11Fouls17
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.49
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.42
box share (last 5)0.680.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days119.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
119.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.051.34
elo1475.961510.37
elo momentum (last 5)42.30-22.62
eye test v10.330.53
eye trend v10.26-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)52.5062.30
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.27
keeper form v1—0.75
league points12.008.00
league rank3.0010.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6077.60
possession avg (last 5)48.2053.80
rest days5.386.13
scorer concentration0.290.29
season ppg2.001.33
skill v10.180.35
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.40
state index0.39-0.22
sterile dominance v10.090.15
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60