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Cordoba 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win39%2.45
Cordoba win31%3.11
Draw30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Luis Pérez · Tenerife
45'🟨Franck Bambock · Cordoba
45'⚽José Naranjo · Tenerife
52'🟨Ibrahim Blati Toure · Cordoba
54'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
61'🟨Luis Pérez · Tenerife
61'🟥Luis Pérez · Tenerife
72'🟨José Fernández · Cordoba
87'🟨Aythami Artiles · Cordoba
87'🟨Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
87'🟨Bryan Acosta · Tenerife
90'🟨Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
90'⚽Álvaro Aguado · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots5
8On target3
7Corners2
17Fouls18
6Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.24
box share (last 5)0.660.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days52.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
21.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.302.94
elo1410.211463.00
elo momentum (last 5)-46.79-26.14
eye test v10.16-0.14
eye trend v1-0.590.08
first sub minute (last 10)54.5053.60
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.63
keeper form v10.580.71
league points2.003.00
league rank22.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win5.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2077.60
possession avg (last 5)53.4052.80
rest days7.107.10
scorer concentration0.20—
season ppg0.400.60
skill v10.280.29
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
state index-1.15-0.85
sterile dominance v10.41-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.180.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80