⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Extremadura 1–2 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win41%2.39
Extremadura win30%3.25
Draw30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Giovanni Zarfino · Extremadura
14'⚽ (pen)Rubén Castro · Las Palmas
20'🟨Roberto Olabe · Extremadura
34'🟨Rubén Castro · Las Palmas
37'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
38'⚽Enric Gallego · Extremadura
45'🟨Diego Capel · Extremadura
49'⚽Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
60'🟨Carlos Valverde · Extremadura
63'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
63'🟥Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
66'🟨Fidel · Las Palmas
76'🟨Raúl Fernández · Las Palmas
85'🟨— · Extremadura
85'🟨Chuli · Extremadura

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
21Shots12
7On target6
12Corners1
18Fouls23
6Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.63
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
coach days715.00138.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)—0.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)—3.03
defensive leak (last 5)—0.06
dominance (last 5)—0.59
elo1381.771481.42
elo momentum (last 5)-33.8817.95
eye test v1-0.970.60
eye trend v1—0.64
first sub minute (last 10)56.5053.40
form points (last 5)1.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.630.70
league points1.008.00
league rank23.009.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win10.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.7582.00
possession avg (last 5)43.0057.80
rest days7.009.00
scorer concentration—0.71
season ppg0.202.00
shot diff avg (last 5)—3.20
shots for avg (last 5)—12.20
skill v1-1.291.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.754.00
sot for avg (last 10)—3.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.755.40
squad age28.3428.80
state index-1.460.24
sterile dominance v1-0.570.89
threat rate (last 10)—0.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40