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Almeria 0–1 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Sep 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win41%2.34
Draw33%2.91
Almeria win25%3.81

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Jack Harper · Málaga CF
88'🟨— · Málaga CF
90'🟨Juan Fernández · Almeria
90'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots7
3On target4
9Corners2
14Fouls18
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.430.68
cards avg (last 5)4.002.40
coach days551.0094.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.07
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
corner diff avg (last 5)
-1.20
-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.001.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.14
dominance (last 5)0.330.50
elo1427.131520.47
elo momentum (last 5)-18.02-15.61
eye test v1-1.70-0.42
eye trend v1-0.030.16
first sub minute (last 10)57.7056.70
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.820.59
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.4072.60
possession avg (last 5)40.8041.80
rest days8.0010.00
season ppg0.503.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.80-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)5.6010.80
skill v1-1.79-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.403.20
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)1.603.60
squad age26.3326.51
state index-0.70-0.34
sterile dominance v1-0.24-0.74
threat rate (last 10)0.190.24
threat rate (last 3)0.140.24
threat rate (last 5)0.140.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60