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Zaragoza 1–1 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win40%2.43
Draw32%3.00
Las Palmas win28%3.47

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
28'⚽Álvaro Vázquez · Zaragoza
45'🟨Juan Cala · Las Palmas
54'🟨Javi Castellano · Las Palmas
65'⚽Rafa Mir · Las Palmas
89'🟨Dani Castellano · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots14
11On target5
4Corners4
12Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.500.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.560.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.740.70
cards avg (last 5)1.600.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
coach days92.00123.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.300.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.202.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.773.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.09
dominance (last 5)0.400.55
elo1547.921464.75
elo momentum (last 5)2.82-8.92
eye test v10.210.17
eye trend v1-0.220.90
first sub minute (last 10)64.8052.80
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.15
keeper form v10.740.69
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4078.00
possession avg (last 5)51.0055.20
rest days7.007.00
season ppg2.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.802.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.0012.00
skill v10.250.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age25.7628.39
state index0.24-0.28
sterile dominance v10.580.59
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.180.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40