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Lugo 3–2 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win39%2.47
Draw31%3.09
Numancia win30%3.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'⚽Pichu Atienza · Numancia
40'⚽Alain Oyarzun · Numancia
45'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
49'⚽Iriome Gonzalez · Lugo
59'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
62'🟨Pablo Larrea · Numancia
65'⚽Antonio Campillo · Lugo
82'🟨Dani Escriche · Lugo
85'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
86'🟨José Carlos Ramírez · Lugo
90'🟨Juan Carlos · Numancia
90'🟨Grego Sierra · Numancia
90'⚽Giorgi Aburjania · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
14Shots8
6On target2
6Corners5
23Fouls13
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.41
box share (last 5)0.710.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days76.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
92.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.453.81
elo1395.151470.77
elo momentum (last 5)-26.671.43
eye test v1-0.540.86
eye trend v10.180.05
first sub minute (last 10)53.0053.20
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.82
keeper form v10.63—
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet6.0011.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6073.40
possession avg (last 5)60.4055.00
rest days5.816.88
season ppg0.501.00
skill v11.220.00
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.805.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.006.40
state index-1.01-0.41
sterile dominance v11.35-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.160.28
threat rate (last 3)0.130.26
threat rate (last 5)0.170.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00