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Almeria 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win38%2.54
Draw32%3.01
Almeria win30%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Luis Pérez · Tenerife
22'⚽Luis Rioja · Almeria
28'🟨Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
30'🟨Raul Camara · Tenerife
42'🟨Angel Trujillo · Almeria
49'🟨César de la Hoz · Almeria
54'🟨César de la Hoz · Almeria
54'🟥César de la Hoz · Almeria
81'⚽Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
83'🟨Yan Eteki · Almeria
88'🟨Andoni López · Almeria
90'🟨José Naranjo · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots12
1On target2
4Corners4
16Fouls17
5Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
box share (last 5)0.530.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days543.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
206.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.131.35
elo1406.961489.32
elo momentum (last 5)-5.3011.25
eye test v1-1.290.01
eye trend v10.130.06
first sub minute (last 10)57.5056.60
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.63
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.650.68
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8073.80
possession avg (last 5)39.4052.00
rest days9.086.08
season ppg0.001.00
skill v1-1.63-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.20
state index-0.48-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.41-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.180.28
threat rate (last 3)0.150.23
threat rate (last 5)0.170.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60