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Cordoba 2–4 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win37%2.64
Cordoba win32%3.00
Draw31%3.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
24'🟨Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
34'⚽Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo
38'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
45'🟨Aythami Artiles · Cordoba
45'🟨Franck Bambock · Cordoba
45'🟨Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo
46'🟨Alex Quintanilla · Cordoba
52'⚽Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
57'⚽Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
61'🟨Javier Muñoz · Oviedo
73'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
81'⚽Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
19Shots10
8On target6
6Corners3
11Fouls17
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.34
box share (last 5)0.570.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days24.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
420.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.373.37
elo1455.651478.75
elo momentum (last 5)60.88-9.35
eye test v10.56-0.04
eye trend v10.13-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)54.4067.60
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.74
keeper form v10.420.67
matches since blank19.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6070.40
possession avg (last 5)40.8049.80
rest days7.006.13
season ppg1.001.00
skill v1-1.25-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.60
state index0.64-0.28
sterile dominance v1-1.20-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.25
threat rate (last 5)0.300.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80