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Extremadura 0–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win46%2.09
Draw29%3.34
Extremadura win25%3.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Alex Barrera · Extremadura
49'⚽Quique · RC Deportivo La Coruña
55'🟨Fausto Tienza · Extremadura
59'🟨Vicente Gómez · RC Deportivo La Coruña
78'🟨— · Extremadura
89'🟨Christian Santos · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Marcelo Djaló · Extremadura

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots9
3On target2
10Corners3
19Fouls17
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)—0.66
cards avg (last 5)0.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
coach days692.0084.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)—0.11
corner diff avg (last 5)—2.60
corners against avg (last 5)—4.20
corners for avg (last 5)—6.80
corners volatility (last 10)—2.55
defensive leak (last 5)—0.16
dominance (last 5)—0.44
elo1419.631524.41
elo momentum (last 5)-26.89-12.30
eye test v1—0.33
eye trend v1—0.13
first sub minute (last 10)—54.80
form points (last 5)2.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v1—0.92
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win6.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)—83.60
possession avg (last 5)—45.80
rest days5.007.00
season ppg1.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)—-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)—12.80
skill v1—0.44
sot against avg (last 5)—5.80
sot for avg (last 10)—4.20
sot for avg (last 3)—5.33
sot for avg (last 5)—4.60
squad age27.6528.04
state index-0.95-0.54
sterile dominance v1—-0.33
threat rate (last 10)—0.30
threat rate (last 3)—0.26
threat rate (last 5)—0.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20