⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Las Palmas 2–0 Reus

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win59%1.58
Draw27%3.52
Reus win14%6.79

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Rubén Castro · Las Palmas
22'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
36'🟨Javi Castellano · Las Palmas
45'🟨Alfred Planas · Reus
69'⚽Rubén Castro · Las Palmas
88'🟨— · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots4
3On target1
1Corners0
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGran Canaria
coach days110.0057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.07
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.963.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.540.29
elo1455.761449.44
elo momentum (last 5)-26.59-31.80
eye test v1-0.38-0.82
eye trend v10.67-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)53.5059.10
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
keeper form v10.690.74
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet13.004.00
matches since win16.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4080.60
possession avg (last 5)59.4053.00
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-9.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.406.80
skill v10.930.62
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.60
squad age26.8128.23
state index-1.24-0.80
sterile dominance v10.811.14
threat rate (last 10)0.200.19
threat rate (last 3)0.220.10
threat rate (last 5)0.220.14
venue ppg (last 5)0.001.20