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Oviedo 1–1 Extremadura

← Segunda DivisiΓ³n 2018 Β· Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win57%1.69
Draw28%3.43
Extremadura win14%6.71

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Toché · Oviedo
60'🟨Carlos Valverde · Extremadura
75'⚽Alex Barrera · Extremadura
88'🟨Joselu · Oviedo

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots3
7On target1
9Corners1
20Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoExtremadura
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.35β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.31β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.35β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.66β€”
cards avg (last 5)3.800.00
coach days414.00687.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.14β€”
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
corner diff avg (last 5)
1.60
β€”
corners against avg (last 5)4.00β€”
corners for avg (last 5)5.60β€”
corners volatility (last 10)3.16β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.11β€”
dominance (last 5)0.52β€”
elo1502.021415.65
elo momentum (last 5)-5.28-26.22
eye test v1-0.12β€”
eye trend v10.21β€”
first sub minute (last 10)67.40β€”
form points (last 5)9.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.68β€”
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.60β€”
possession avg (last 5)49.40β€”
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00β€”
shots for avg (last 5)11.20β€”
skill v1-0.66β€”
sot against avg (last 5)4.40β€”
sot for avg (last 10)4.10β€”
sot for avg (last 3)4.67β€”
sot for avg (last 5)4.40β€”
squad age28.93β€”
state index0.24-0.90
sterile dominance v1-0.38β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.23β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.30β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.25β€”
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60