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Albacete 1–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win34%2.86
Draw33%2.90
Albacete win33%2.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨David Simón · RC Deportivo La Coruña
40'🟨Álvaro Tejero · Albacete
55'🟨Pedro · RC Deportivo La Coruña
67'🟨Diego Caballo · RC Deportivo La Coruña
71'⚽Domingos Duarte · RC Deportivo La Coruña
72'🟨Roman Zozulya · Albacete
85'🟥Michael Krohn-Dehli · RC Deportivo La Coruña
85'⚽ (pen)Rey Manaj · Albacete
90'🟨Domingos Duarte · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots8
4On target2
2Corners3
16Fouls12
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.33
box share (last 5)0.600.69
cards avg (last 5)0.001.60
coach days77.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
77.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.33
elo1435.481431.65
elo momentum (last 5)-17.03-7.05
eye test v1-0.350.30
eye trend v1-0.170.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.3055.10
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.16
keeper form v10.670.38
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win11.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)41.4045.40
rest days30.0030.00
skill v1-1.970.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.60
state index-1.00-0.69
sterile dominance v1-1.79-0.55
threat rate (last 10)0.330.30
threat rate (last 3)0.300.27
threat rate (last 5)0.330.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00