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Ankaragücü 0–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Jul 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Çakιr

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü win45%2.17
Antalyaspor win28%3.50
Draw27%3.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü −0.2551%1.90
Antalyaspor −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.72
Under45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Tiago Pinto · Ankaragücü
48'🟨Michał Pazdan · Ankaragücü
64'🟨Yekta Kurtuluş · Antalyaspor
81'🟨Ante Kulušić · Ankaragücü
85'🟨Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü
90'🟨Adis Jahović · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Yekta Kurtuluş · Antalyaspor
90'🟥Yekta Kurtuluş · Antalyaspor
90'⚽Adis Jahović · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots9
6On target5
9Corners6
19Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.550.59
cards avg (last 5)3.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
coach days261.00200.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.44
elo1456.091523.46
elo momentum (last 5)27.534.21
eye test v10.52-0.13
eye trend v10.42-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)63.0063.80
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.420.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.600.59
league points37.0044.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank10.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0078.80
possession avg (last 5)39.0042.20
rest days7.107.00
scorer concentration0.240.13
season ppg0.971.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.6010.80
skill v1-1.19-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.00
sot for avg (last 3)7.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.00
squad age30.2028.88
state index-0.09-0.12
sterile dominance v1-1.63-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.340.29
threat rate (last 3)0.430.28
threat rate (last 5)0.360.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80