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Trabzonspor 3–4 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Jul 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win59%1.64
Draw22%4.50
Konyaspor win19%5.18

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −0.7554%1.81
Konyaspor −0.7546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.55
Under38%2.55

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Alexander Sørloth · Trabzonspor
25'🟨Caleb Ekuban · Trabzonspor
42'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
56'⚽ (pen)Alexander Sørloth · Trabzonspor
61'⚽Filip Novák · Trabzonspor
81'⚽Levan Shengelia · Konyaspor
87'🟨Manuel Da Costa · Trabzonspor
88'⚽ (pen)Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
90'⚽Thuram · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots9
7On target6
5Corners6
15Fouls8
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
box share (last 5)0.610.71
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
coach days200.00626.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.14
dominance (last 5)0.520.47
elo1702.051510.43
elo momentum (last 5)7.1819.95
eye test v10.030.33
eye trend v1-0.080.37
first sub minute (last 10)57.7059.30
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.43
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.750.30
keeper form v10.720.50
league points72.0042.00
league rank1.0012.00
matches since blank20.004.00
matches since clean sheet14.003.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8083.00
possession avg (last 5)55.8046.80
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.350.25
season ppg1.891.11
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6011.60
skill v11.070.40
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age28.2628.46
state index0.47-0.19
sterile dominance v10.660.13
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.280.29
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40