⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Besiktas 2–0 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Jul 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win53%1.84
Draw25%3.90
Fenerbahce win23%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce −0.7553%1.85
Besiktas −0.7547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.53
Under37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟥Vedat Muriqi · Fenerbahce
27'🟨Jeremain Lens · Besiktas
31'🟨Gökhan Gönül · Besiktas
55'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
63'⚽Domagoj Vida · Besiktas
70'⚽Gökhan Gönül · Besiktas
81'🟨Simon Falette · Fenerbahce
86'🟨Deniz Türüç · Fenerbahce
88'🟨Tolga Ciğerci · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
90'🟨Jailson

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots17
7On target5
3Corners6
18Fouls19
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)1.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
· Fenerbahce
coach days200.0048.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.401.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.862.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.560.54
elo1657.741597.74
elo momentum (last 5)3.32-22.87
eye test v11.030.51
eye trend v1-0.010.28
first sub minute (last 10)55.9056.20
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.601.06
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.560.63
league points67.0060.00
league rank5.007.00
matches since blank7.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.0015.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.8085.60
possession avg (last 5)61.6064.60
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.150.26
season ppg1.761.58
shot diff avg (last 5)3.001.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.2013.80
skill v11.851.83
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.205.00
squad age28.4627.49
state index0.66-0.19
sterile dominance v11.371.42
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40