← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Jul 12, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Palabıyık
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Sivasspor win | 29% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.63 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Sivasspor −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.64 |
| Under | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi |