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Goztep 2–2 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2019 · Wed, Jul 8, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Aydınus

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win38%2.58
Ankaragücü win34%2.77
Draw28%3.43

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep +052%1.88
Ankaragücü +048%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Dever Orgill · Ankaragücü
26'⚽ (pen)Kamil Wilczek · Goztep
31'🟨Gerson Rodrigues · Ankaragücü
35'🟨Soner Aydoğdu · Goztep
45'⚽Soner Aydoğdu · Goztep
49'🟨Daniel Łukasik · Ankaragücü
58'⚽ (pen)Gerson Rodrigues · Ankaragücü
61'🟨Stelios Kitsiou · Ankaragücü
90'🟨Titi · Goztep
90'🟨Ante Kulušić · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots16
5On target7
1Corners3
14Fouls21
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.55
cards avg (last 5)1.803.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGursel Aksel Stadium
coach days523.00250.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.022.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.16
dominance (last 5)0.560.53
elo1481.641422.94
elo momentum (last 5)-12.50-9.65
eye test v10.030.30
eye trend v10.05-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)49.3063.60
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.640.64
league points41.0030.00
league rank11.0021.00
matches since blank5.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.0010.00
matches since win4.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.8069.20
possession avg (last 5)58.0038.20
rest days4.004.10
scorer concentration0.210.20
season ppg1.170.86
shot diff avg (last 5)2.601.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8013.40
skill v11.42-1.51
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.00
squad age29.8129.85
state index-0.46-0.73
sterile dominance v11.14-1.81
threat rate (last 10)0.210.34
threat rate (last 3)0.160.33
threat rate (last 5)0.210.36
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00