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Sivasspor 0–1 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Wed, Jul 8, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Y. Uğurlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win55%1.74
Draw25%3.88
Yeni Malatyaspor win20%4.83

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor −0.7550%1.93
Sivasspor −0.7550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Mustapha Yatabaré · Sivasspor
29'🟨Teenage Hadebe · Yeni Malatyaspor
68'⚽Afriyie Acquah · Yeni Malatyaspor
85'🟨Fabien Farnolle · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Mustafa Akbaş · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots8
1On target4
6Corners0
8Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.480.53
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days403.00129.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.13
corner diff avg (last 5)4.00-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.011.40
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.580.42
elo1620.171458.96
elo momentum (last 5)-26.58-21.11
eye test v1-0.10-0.53
eye trend v1-0.260.02
first sub minute (last 10)45.6053.10
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.730.60
league points61.0034.00
league rank4.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4073.40
possession avg (last 5)55.2040.40
rest days3.004.00
scorer concentration0.240.19
season ppg1.690.94
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.209.60
skill v10.80-0.96
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
squad age29.6629.71
state index-0.01-0.71
sterile dominance v10.45-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.270.20
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00