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Genclerbirligi 1–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2019 · Tue, Jul 7, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Ulusoy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win53%1.81
Draw25%3.94
Genclerbirligi win22%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi +0.7552%1.86
Fenerbahce +0.7548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Jailson · Fenerbahce
42'🟨Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
54'🟨Yasin Pehlivan · Genclerbirligi
59'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
60'⚽Bogdan Stancu · Genclerbirligi
74'🟨Nabil Dirar · Fenerbahce
81'⚽Emre Belözoğlu · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Daniel Candeias · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Sefa Yılmaz · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots15
6On target7
6Corners5
13Fouls14
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.190.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.66
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
1.60
coach days280.0036.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.11
corner diff avg (last 5)3.600.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.952.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.15
dominance (last 5)0.480.55
elo1443.231612.64
elo momentum (last 5)-36.82-23.78
eye test v1-0.71-0.04
eye trend v1-0.170.35
first sub minute (last 10)63.0054.60
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.790.59
league points36.0059.00
league rank14.005.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.0013.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6085.40
possession avg (last 5)52.8058.80
rest days3.002.90
scorer concentration0.310.27
season ppg1.001.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.402.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.40
skill v10.761.43
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.80
squad age29.7728.03
state index-0.75-0.13
sterile dominance v10.481.09
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20