⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Konyaspor 1–0 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Jul 5, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Aydınus

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win50%1.92
Draw28%3.42
Rizespor win22%4.48

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.551%1.92
Rizespor −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Jens Jønsson · Konyaspor
46'🟨Montassar Talbi · Rizespor
74'🟨Fernando Boldrin · Rizespor
83'🟨Marin Aničić · Konyaspor
90'🟨Ali Turan · Konyaspor
90'⚽ (pen)Farouk Miya · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots5
4On target1
4Corners5
14Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.680.57
cards avg (last 5)3.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
coach days612.00126.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.402.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.351.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.20
dominance (last 5)0.450.47
elo1482.921476.62
elo momentum (last 5)1.8722.18
eye test v1-0.48-0.24
eye trend v10.140.44
first sub minute (last 10)57.2060.40
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.450.67
league points33.0032.00
league rank18.0019.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0082.20
possession avg (last 5)42.6054.20
rest days9.007.10
scorer concentration0.210.19
season ppg0.970.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.0010.40
skill v1-0.070.82
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.60
squad age28.5727.80
state index-0.34-0.38
sterile dominance v1-0.090.91
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00