← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Jun 28, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Tokat
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Gaziantep win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Antalyaspor win | 29% | 3.44 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Gaziantep −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Antalyaspor −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand