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Sivasspor 0–2 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Jun 28, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Kalkavan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win59%1.61
Draw22%4.38
Kayserispor win18%5.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor −0.7555%1.78
Kayserispor −0.7545%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Caner Osmanpaşa · Sivasspor
13'🟨Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
37'🟨Fatih Aksoy · Sivasspor
45'⚽Hasan Hüseyin Acar · Kayserispor
73'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
73'🟨Muris Mešanovič · Kayserispor
76'🟨Yasir Subaşı · Kayserispor
83'⚽ (pen)Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
89'🟨Miguel Lopes · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
20Shots9
5On target4
9Corners4
11Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.570.65
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days393.00119.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.332.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.12
dominance (last 5)0.540.47
elo1647.751416.40
elo momentum (last 5)-10.47-3.32
eye test v10.430.27
eye trend v1-0.580.03
first sub minute (last 10)49.2071.10
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.660.63
league points59.0026.00
league rank2.0021.00
matches since blank2.0016.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2087.00
possession avg (last 5)49.8052.00
rest days6.908.00
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg1.790.79
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.2012.60
skill v10.231.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.40
squad age30.3327.99
state index0.37-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.000.55
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60