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Fenerbahce 3–2 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Jun 27, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win61%1.57
Draw22%4.47
Yeni Malatyaspor win17%5.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce −150%1.94
Yeni Malatyaspor −150%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.56
Under38%2.56

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Gökhan Töre · Yeni Malatyaspor
19'🟨Deniz Türüç · Fenerbahce
64'🟨Mustafa Akbaş · Yeni Malatyaspor
65'🟨Gökhan Töre · Yeni Malatyaspor
65'🟥Gökhan Töre · Yeni Malatyaspor
70'⚽Vedat Muriqi · Fenerbahce
71'🟨Fabien Farnolle · Yeni Malatyaspor
77'🟨Garry Rodrigues · Fenerbahce
81'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
81'⚽Youssouf Ndayishimiye · Yeni Malatyaspor
89'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots8
4On target4
6Corners3
12Fouls14
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.550.45
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
Mitchell Donald · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'⚽Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
90'⚽Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
1.80
coach days26.00118.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.641.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.15
dominance (last 5)0.510.45
elo1602.531466.11
elo momentum (last 5)-53.39-35.32
eye test v1-0.23-0.17
eye trend v1-0.330.25
first sub minute (last 10)54.9055.40
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.630.67
league points53.0033.00
league rank6.0016.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet11.0016.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.8078.60
possession avg (last 5)56.4047.40
rest days6.006.90
scorer concentration0.280.21
season ppg1.560.97
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.8010.00
skill v11.310.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.80
squad age27.9130.02
state index-0.41-0.76
sterile dominance v10.990.17
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.00