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Antalyaspor 3–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Mon, Jun 22, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Arslanboğa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win43%2.28
Rizespor win29%3.40
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor −0.2550%1.93
Antalyaspor −0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Sinan Gümüş · Antalyaspor
47'🟨Mykola Morozyuk · Rizespor
51'🟨Sinan Gümüş · Antalyaspor
73'🟨Tarık Çetin · Rizespor
73'⚽ (pen)Adis Jahović · Antalyaspor
75'⚽Ersan Gülüm · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Ersan Gülüm · Antalyaspor
90'⚽ (pen)Milan Škoda · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots9
7On target4
6Corners4
16Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.55
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
coach days173.00113.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-5.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.607.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.602.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.361.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.13
dominance (last 5)0.400.39
elo1507.501491.07
elo momentum (last 5)48.4129.34
eye test v1-0.02-0.51
eye trend v1-0.01-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)58.2062.70
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.760.83
league points36.0031.00
league rank12.0019.00
matches since blank8.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2081.40
possession avg (last 5)39.6050.60
rest days9.008.00
scorer concentration0.110.17
season ppg1.160.97
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.40-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.2011.40
skill v1-0.840.50
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.80
squad age30.8527.58
state index0.52-0.11
sterile dominance v1-1.140.34
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.18
threat rate (last 5)0.310.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20