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Yeni Malatyaspor 2–1 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Jun 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Ö. Yankaya

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win36%2.70
Goztep win36%2.69
Draw28%3.47

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep +050%1.94
Yeni Malatyaspor +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'⚽Umut Bulut · Yeni Malatyaspor
76'⚽ (pen)Alpaslan Öztürk · Goztep
78'⚽Viðar Örn Kjartansson · Yeni Malatyaspor
79'🟨Teenage Hadebe · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Alpaslan Öztürk · Goztep
90'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots10
3On target2
2Corners6
10Fouls11
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.470.66
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
coach days111.00505.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.972.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.17
dominance (last 5)0.380.61
elo1456.731494.99
elo momentum (last 5)-47.03-39.18
eye test v1-0.48-0.13
eye trend v10.050.20
first sub minute (last 10)54.4056.20
form points (last 5)1.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.650.71
league points30.0040.00
league rank17.0010.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet15.001.00
matches since win15.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2086.40
possession avg (last 5)50.4058.60
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.220.21
season ppg0.911.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.405.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.0014.20
skill v10.271.52
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.40
squad age30.2429.45
state index-1.48-0.49
sterile dominance v10.690.98
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.170.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.80