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Kayserispor 2–1 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sun, Mar 15, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win40%2.37
Yeni Malatyaspor win33%2.98
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor −0.2553%1.85
Kayserispor −0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Muris Mešanovič · Kayserispor
42'⚽Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
45'🟨Arturo Mina · Yeni Malatyaspor
50'🟨Zoran Kvržić · Kayserispor
70'⚽Viðar Örn Kjartansson · Yeni Malatyaspor
72'🟨Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
90'🟨Gustavo Campanharo · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots15
5On target8
3Corners5
19Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.670.48
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
3.00
coach days14.0014.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.006.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.511.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.540.38
elo1392.171491.18
elo momentum (last 5)-0.73-46.45
eye test v10.59-0.30
eye trend v1-0.18-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)69.2052.20
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.420.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.610.66
league points20.0030.00
league rank21.0016.00
matches since blank13.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.0012.00
matches since win2.0012.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.0080.60
possession avg (last 5)53.6052.00
rest days7.003.73
scorer concentration0.320.23
season ppg0.671.00
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.208.80
skill v11.150.51
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.80
squad age28.7429.86
state index-0.57-1.42
sterile dominance v10.440.86
threat rate (last 10)0.280.18
threat rate (last 3)0.230.11
threat rate (last 5)0.270.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00