⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Konyaspor 1–0 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2019 · Sat, Mar 14, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Göçek

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win43%2.23
Konyaspor win29%3.32
Draw28%3.46

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce +0.2550%1.93
Konyaspor +0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Selim Ay · Konyaspor
31'🟨Uğur Demirok · Konyaspor
39'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
41'⚽Riad Bajić · Konyaspor
47'🟨Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
55'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
67'🟨Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
67'🟥Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
76'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
76'🟥Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
84'🟨Garry Rodrigues

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots10
2On target0
0Corners5
14Fouls10
7Yellow cards2
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.510.58
cards avg (last 5)2.203.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
· Fenerbahce
88'🟨Ertuğrul Taşkıran · Konyaspor
coach days499.00469.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.19
dominance (last 5)0.540.56
elo1483.391649.37
elo momentum (last 5)-19.67-56.57
eye test v1-0.010.14
eye trend v10.11-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)61.3056.10
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.640.59
league points29.0050.00
league rank16.007.00
matches since blank1.0015.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win9.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6085.00
possession avg (last 5)51.8062.00
rest days7.257.00
scorer concentration0.270.28
season ppg0.971.67
shot diff avg (last 5)1.803.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.40
skill v10.601.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.20
squad age28.2627.98
state index-0.67-0.51
sterile dominance v10.271.25
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40